Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
